BEIJING (XINHUA) – Chinese researchers have discovered using big data analysis that the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States may have started to spread in September 2019, earlier than the officially announced date of its first confirmed case .
According to a new article published on Wednesday (September 22) as a pre-publication in ChinaXiv, a series of earlier studies showed that the United States, Spain, France, Italy, Brazil and other countries had showed signs of being affected by the virus before its outbreak. in China.
ChinaXiv is an online publishing service operated by the National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The article, titled Dating The First Case Of Covid-19 Epidemic From A Probabilistic Perspective, suggested that qualitative and quantitative analysis of infectious diseases, performed by combining mathematical models and artificial intelligence technology, may reveal the epidemic law of infectious diseases.
The researchers set up an optimized model using the epidemic transmission model and the big data analysis method, and deduced the dates of the first cases of infection in 12 states in the northeastern United States. and in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China, based on published data.
The result indicated that, for the 12 US states, the possible dates of the first infection, with a probability of 50%, are mainly between August and October 2019, while the first is April 26, 2019 in Rhode Island, and the latest is November 30, 2019 in Delaware.
All dates shown by the data are prior to January 20, 2020, the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States, showing that the Covid-19 pandemic in the country has started to spread around September 2019 with a confidence probability. high. .
The result also showed that the date of the first case of Covid-19 in Wuhan, with a probability of 50%, is December 20, 2019 and the date for Zhejiang is December 23, 2019. He deduces that the Covid-19 in China probably started in late December 2019.
The article indicates that this is consistent with the results of the epidemiological investigation, which proves that the calculation method is precise and reliable.