Chinese researchers have discovered using big data analysis that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States may have started to spread in September 2019, earlier than the officially announced date of its first confirmed case.
According to a new article published Wednesday as a pre-publication in ChinaXiv, a series of previous studies have shown that the United States, Spain, France, Italy, Brazil and other countries have shown signs of ‘be affected by the virus before its epidemic in China.
ChinaXiv is an online publishing service operated by the National Science Library, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The article, titled “Dating the First Case of COVID-19 Epidemic from a Probabilistic Perspective,” suggested that the qualitative and quantitative analysis of infectious diseases, performed by combining mathematical models and artificial intelligence technology, may reveal the epidemic law of infectious diseases. .
The researchers set up an optimized model using the epidemic transmission model and the big data analysis method, and deduced the dates of the first cases of infection in 12 states in the northeastern United States. and in Wuhan City and Zhejiang Province in China, based on published data.
The result indicated that, for the 12 US states, the possible dates of first infection, with a 50 percent probability, fall primarily between August and October 2019, while the earliest is April 26, 2019 in Rhode Island, and the latest is November 30, 2019 in Delaware.
All dates shown by the data are before January 20, 2020, the officially announced date of the first confirmed case in the United States, showing that the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States began to spread around September 2019 with a high probability. of confidence.
The result also showed that the date of the first case of COVID-19 in Wuhan, with a probability of 50%, is December 20, 2019 and the date for Zhejiang is December 23, 2019. He deduces that COVID-19 in China is more likely to have started by the end of December 2019.
The article indicates that this is consistent with the results of the epidemiological investigation, which proves that the calculation method is accurate and reliable.